Despite a relatively calm calendar for NZD traders this week, the Kiwi Dollar is on the cusp of breaking to a fresh 1-year high.
Sitting at a 7-day high, a break above 0.7148 will take the Kiwi to its highest level since June 2015. Currently just 20 bps below this milestone level, an upside break appears imminent.
The Kiwi Dollar surged after RBNZ refrained from lowering the cash rate or upping their dovish tone. Further support was provided from strong GDP, business PMI data and a fresh round of greenback selling. A dovish FED also lent a helping hand to the Kiwi Dollar strength, so we’ll keep a close eye on any comments from Yellen as any further hints of dove should send the Kiwi flying. As the TWI is now near a 13-month high then another weak inflation print next month will surely force RBNZ to cut at the following meeting. The Central Bank reuiqre a lower Dollar to help tradable inflation, which has now contracted for two consecutive quarters.
Risk-related such as NZD, AUD and stocks are likely to surge if UK remain in the EU or if, as was seen overnight, the ‘remain’ group regain traction in the polls.
Taking the above into account a break to a 1-year high for NZDUSD seems almost inevitable this week.
|Resistance 3:||0.7320||Monthly R3|
|Resistance 2:||0.7232||10/06/15 high, Monthly R2|
|Resistance 1:||0.7148||7-day high (break baove confirms 1yr high)|
|Support 1:||0.7000||Round number|
|Support 2:||0.6946||15/06/16 low|
|Support 3:||0.6894||50 day MA, 07/06/16 low|