ThinkMarkets - Analytics

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    USDCAD holds steady at 2009 highs

    The last time USDCAD traded around current levels the markets were at the height of the GFC. Needless to say volatility was high, with the 1.30 region being the upper boundary of a 1,500 range which last five months, before rolling over into a two year bearish trend. Perhaps this time it will be different...






    Well things are different this time around. At time of writing the Canadian Dollar is getting sold due to lower Oil prices, lower interest rates and a lowering economic outlook. At the same time weaker commodity prices are helping to strengthen the USD whilst traders continue to buy Greenback in anticipation of FED raising rates. Unless there is a significant change to any of the underlying themes which is pushing USDCAD higher than it is hard to envisage how we could see a sizeable retracement on USDCAD. Add to that the fact that large speculators continue to increase their short exposure to CAD and long exposure to USD then USDCAD is likely to remain on its buy-the-dip status.

    D1 continues to grind higher, lulling 'top pickers' into thinking the move higher is over. It remains within a tight Bullish Channel with the MA's in sequence and fanning out, to demonstrate bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. If we are to see a retracement there are plenty of technical levels to consider as support, which is likely to attract buying interest.

    With no obvious levels to choose as targets then I'll focus on 1.3255 (1996 lows) and 1.34 (100% projection) to consider booking profits. As long as we remain above 1.2834 (March highs) then shallow retracements can be assumed and bullish setups considered. 


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