ThinkMarkets - Analytics


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    AUDNZD sits at key support (for now)

    Momentum is clearly bearish near-term but we do sit at a crucial level of support which will decide the next wave of moves. 

    The break below 1.1024 may have confirmed a Double Top which, if successful, should see it trade down towards 1.400. Technical Analysis can become very subjective and personal and under this occasion I would point out I do not consider this price action to be a typical Double Top.

    If we see continued declines I suspect we are more likely to see a A-B-C move or Double Zig-Zag pattern, which could easily see AUDNZD back above the 1.1024 breakout line whilst retaining its downwards bias. 

    1.090-92 is an important support level which we currently find ourselves resting upon. This is a historical S/R level which goes back into 2013 but also coincides with the Monthly S1 and 38.2% retracement level. Any rallies above here could easily target 1.1024 resistance.

    A convincing break below 1.092 could then target 1.0710 which houses the 50% retracement and 161.8% expansion (and swing low prior to the gap-up in June) with another confluential zone of support around 1.050-57. Here we see the 200% protection, 61.8% retracement and June swing low. 

    Gold and Copper really need to begin rallying in order for AUDNZD's decline to halt. This is not an imopssible scenario as I strongly suspect that Gold is due for a bounce before losses resume. However at the same time AUD is feeling the pressure by the uncertainty China's stock markets and potential for a stronger USD at tonight's FOMC meeting. Whilst I suspect the downside is looking a little stretched that is not to say we do not dip below 1.090 first but ultimately I would prefer to fade into any moves below 1.10 to assume an eventual move down towards 1.0710

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