The Aussie Dollar was hit with a mixed data set earlier today which saw ANZ business confidence contract at its fastest rate since 2009, private sector credit miss expectations but producer price index (PPI) exceeded expectations. PPI looks at the cost of finished goods leaving the factory and is considered to be a good indicator of consumer inflation, so if prices are rising it is assumed this will be passed on to the consumers down the track (which all leads back to the interest rates...)
The Australian Dollar is holding steady against the major crosses but the most notable reaction was against the New Zealand Dollar, which now sits at a 5 day high after breaking above 1.12244 resistance. We could see it test the 1.1150-1.120 resistance zone and I am now favouring the 1.090 swing lowto be of great significance after respecting the 38.2% retracement level earlier this week.
Whilst the Aussie trades sideways against some majors it does point towards the likelihood of AUDUSD remaining above the 6 year lows this week. The USD Index continues to trade higher but the Aussie appears to be resilient, so the weekly close could set a bullish tone for next week with the potential for AUDUSD to break above 0.7350 resistance in the face of soft data form the US.
- A weekly close around current levels would produce an Inverted Hammer, to warn of sideways trading or a correction ahead
- Holding steady against several major crosses it suggests the near-term downside on AUDUSD is losing the sting in its tail
- A rally higher in Europe/US session would put a potential Double Bottom pattern on traders radar for next week, with a break above 0.7350 required for confirmation
- A break below 6-year lows should target 0.720 fairly quickly