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    The week ahead: 1st April 2016

    A summary of calendar events for next week which provides a host of PMI data, RBA cash rate and Canadian employment on the radar. 






    United States: Labor market conditions index dropped to a multi-month low so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues following Friday's NFP data set. ISM Non-manufacturing (services) PMI is out on Tuesday along with Markits' read on the economy. Markit tends to have a slightly rosier read than the ISM counter-part so worth monitoring in tandem. The Service sector in particular is one I'll continue to monitor if cracks continue to appear from these leading indicators.

    CanadaA We have to wait until Friday for Canada's version on NFP. Unemployment remains on the rise but we had received warnings from the manufacturing sector from their PMI read last year. As unemploment as been rising since Jan 2015 and weakness still lingers in their economy then we could be headed towards 7.5% over the coming month/s. 




    Eurozone: PMI data for Eurozone are the final reads which typically are not as volatile for the data itself of the subsequent market moves. That said if we do see any major revisions then we could see some action on Euro crosses. 

    United Kingdom: Construction PMI remains elevated and continues to expand, but like so many other PMI's across the globe it expands at a slower rate. Services PMI is on Tuesday and accounts for a significant part of GDP, and traders will be keen to see if the sudden drop from 55 to 52.7 is repeated; another drop like this could see it test the 50 threshold and further weaken GBP crosses. 





    China: Monday is a bank holiday so trade will be lighter during Asia. Caixin Services PMI is generally the more trusted read over the 'official read'. Previously at 51.2 it caused a stir with December's figure which sank to 50.2, before rebounding to 52.4 in Jan. For a PMI read this seems quite volatile so be on the guard for a surprise in either direction. AUD and NZD crosses are worth considering to trade around Chinese data as they are key trading partners. 

    Japan: The Leading Economic Indicator is a little mis-'leading' with its title as it is considered to be more of a coincident/confirmation tool, due to the inputs of data and lag. However it is useful for monitoring the business cycle which suggests it topped out in March 2014. The Current account has remained elevated, helping prop up the Japanese Yen in the process. The release is unlikely to trigger a sharp sell-off but worth monitoring alongside CFTC positioning to help analyse the weekly and monthly carts. 






    Australia: ANZ job ads fell 1.2% last month but other indicators point towards healthier employment data ahead (other than the ABS read). However if we see a sustained trend of lower job ads then it suggests potential weakness, but I do not think we are there just yet. The AiG Services Index will be highly anticipated following Friday's positive manufacturing data set, to see if it can play catch-up and improve outlook for growth. Construction is the weaker PMI of the three which is released on Wednesday. I don't expect any changes with the Cash rate or even much to the accompanying statement on Tuesday. If anything recent data could see the RBA more Hawkish but I estimate zero chance of any hints of raising rates in the current climate. 

    New Zealand: Commodity prices and dairy prices are the two events for NZD traders next week. Commodity prices have stabilised recently, having printed declines of over 10% during 2015. We are a long way off from any significant gains but time will tell. GDP prices remain under pressure but the magnitude of losses have slowed. However RBNZ surprised the markets with a cut last month so likely to be twitchy on any weak data coming out. 

     

     

     

     

     


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