Today is Friday, and later in the afternoon we will be waiting for the data on the American labour market. Should we open long positions with the USD before a possible strong report, where the NFP will be over 200 000?
Most likely thae US data has entered a correction stage, so there is a possibility we could see disappointing figures again. But the correction is just a “breather” in the trend! That is why the EUR/USD movement depends more on the Fed rather than other central banks, namely ECB.
Yes, we could take into account the ADR report which showed increase in available jobs in the private sector by 169 000 (200 000 was predicted). Increase of occupation in March was reviewed from 189 000 to 175 000. Taking into account the correlation between ADP and NFP reports is negligible, it is not worth relying on this data too much.
With the Euro we wait for possible repeat test of the breached shoulder line of the double bottom figure with further movement up north:
And so with this scenario there is an option to sell at the strong monthly resistance of 1.1650: