Tickmill - Analytics


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    Weak nonfarms before the Greek referendum

    Good day!

    The latest figures from the labour market turned out to be weaker than anticipated, showing that non-agricultural sector generated 60 000 jobs than considered earlier, and the salaries rise very slowly as well (0,0% in June).

    The market was however rather reserved in its reaction to NFP. The upcoming Sunday referendum in Greece is to blame here. The latest polls show that the greeks may well say “NO” on the 5. July referendum. According to the latest GPO poll, 47% of greeks want their country to accept the agreement with its creditors and 43% are leaning to a negative answer. It is evident though that the Greek government just wants to move the burden of debt onto the shoulders of ordinary citizens, not to spoil their political rating. As a reminder, the ΣΥΡΙΖΑ came to power due to their populistic promises, but no real changes followed. Now Athens want their debts written off, and to remain in the Eurozone at the same time, while consuming all the benefits of the civilized European society.

    Overall, considering the ultra-soft monetary policy of the ECB, we stick to the bearish scenario for the EUR and continue to wait for it to reach the borders of parity with the USD.




    On the daily chart the oil price has bounced off the descending channel:

    As the oil price drops, USD/CAD usually rises. Technical signals also show signs of growth for this pair. We shall buy at the breached descending channel horizontal level 1.2350:



    That is why the flag that we proposed earlier is starting to look more like a double peak figure:

    Buy Limit 1.2350, Stop Loss 1.2300, Take Profit 1.2550.


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