Tickmill - Analytics

    Tickmill

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    Greece, loans…is history repeating itself?

    Good day!

    The Eurozoe leaders’ summit took place this weekend, and some important compromises were reached during the discussion, regarding the complex situation around Greece. The debate was long, yet German councellor Angela Merkel, French president François Hollande and the President of the European Counceil Donald Tusk managed to find ways to seal the deal with the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras.

    The resulting agreement was to leave Greece in Eurozone, in exchange for Athens’ agreement to comply with its obligations to pay back its creditors. It has been agreed that Greece will receive the third loan from ESM in parts. The total amount is estimated between 10-25 billion Euros. The members of the summit have agreed to offer help to Greece.
    As a result of these agreements, Alexis Tsipras’ government should pass six bills by 14. July, confirmed by the European Union. If Greece manages to keep its promises, the German parliament will assemble on Thursday to propose a new loan project to Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble.

    At this point, only one thing is certain – it all resembles the Greek scenario from a couple of years back, except maybe its possible expelling from the Eurozone etc. Now, Greece only has one way out – default. Any alternative route is hard and unpredictable.

     

    EUR/USD

    GBP/USD

     

    The EUR price is not moving anywhere at the moment, and remaint in point 3 of the short-term ascending channel (which looks a lot like a flag), so if it breaches it and the candle settles below the line, it would be logical to sell the Euro:

    With the GBP, it looks like a good time to sell right now – the shooting star is stuck at point 3 of the descending channel. We can sell at market price now, but our stop-loss should be rather high, considering we need to set it at the “tail” of the candle (put the stop a bit over 1.15600):

     

    But if it does not breach the channel line – it is a clear signal to buy with a small stop-loss.

    Right now we do see a bullish scenarion unravel for the GBP – the breach of the ascending channel, so we should consider this option as well.
     

    USD/RUB

     

    The Russian Currency is drawing a flag again, if we look at the H4 chart, which definitely points to the continuing growth of the pair. We, however, still wait for the rouble to hit the 60 RUB/USD mark:

     
     


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