WWM - Analytics


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    US Market Open – February 1, 2016

    Overnight events:

    • EUR/USD bid in Europe. 1.0843 to 1.0867
    • USD/JPY off Friday's 121.70 peak. Plays 121.00 to 121.49
    • GBP/USD knee-jerk 1.5322 high after higher-than-exp mfg PMI then lower
    • Brent marginally negative on the day but a reluctant faller
    • Saudi Arabia ready to manage oil mkt but all must cooperate - Al Hayat press
    • ECB Nowotny hopes for more rational approach by markets in March
    • Nowotny: China’s economic struggles are of particular concern to Europe
    • ECB's Coeure suggests EU Commission treasury for euro zone
    • EZ Jan Markit Mfg final PMI 52.3 vs prev 52.3. 52.3 exp
    • GB Jan Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI 52.9 vs prev 52.1 rvsd. 51.7 exp
    • GB Dec BOE Consumer Credit 1.169bln vs prev 1.479bln rvsd. 1.300bln exp
    • GB Dec Mortgage Lending 3.204bln vs prev 3.755bln. 3.700bln exp
    • GB Dec Mortgage Approvals 70.837k vs prev 70.424k rvsd. 69.600k exp
    • CH Jan Manuf PMI 50.0 vs prev 50.4 rvsd. 50.9 exp
    • SNB domestic deposits rise to CHF 407.335bln fm prev 403.135 w/e Jan 29

    Today’s events:

    Daily Option Expirations –  An expiring FX option heading into the New York Cut, if close enough to the strike price, can act as a magnet for selling/buying.  If the option is large, it can generate enough trading to move the market.  (Source:ThompsonReuters)

    • Fri NFP, 2mth date gets March ECB/FOMC and 3mth gets Apr ECB/FOMC
    • EUR/USD vols suffer as ranges hold – 1mth new 2016 low 8.6 now
    • USD/JPY vols/RR lower since BoJ – 1mth atm new 2016 low 8.7
    • GBP 1wk/1mth vol highs since pre UK election last May, BoE/QIR looms Thurs’
    • EUR/CHF front end vol up around 1.0 since early last week amid spot gains
    • CAD vols have recovered some of their post BoC losses – propped for now


    Economic Data(Source:Bloomberg)Feb1data.png

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