Posted on February 2, 2015 by the XM Investment Research Desk at 8:26 am GMT
AUDUSD is hovering at a 5 ½ year of 0.7718 hit on January 29. The pair paused it downtrend that begun from 0.9400. The market is now at oversold levels as shown by the RSI which is below 30. This suggests some consolidation in the near term.
In the bigger picture, the bearish trend looks like it is still in progress. The pair will likely resume its downside momentum after breaking 0.7718 and has scope to target 0.7086. This is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.6008 (October 2008) to 1.1078 (September 2011). In the case of a break of resistance at 0.8541, the 50% Fibonacci, the downtrend will weaken in the medium term.
In the meantime the market is below the daily Ichimoku cloud and the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen are negatively aligned, highlighting the underlying bearish bias.