Posted on February 13, 2015 by the XM Investment Research Desk at 2:57 pm GMT
The week ahead sees some important releases from across the globe. Probably the most eagerly awaited event will be the Eurogroup meeting. Other important events include the FOMC statement and the Bank of England minutes. Economic data releases will also be closely watched, especially PMIs from various countries.
The first piece of data next week comes from Japan, which releases fourth quarter GDP numbers and industrial output data on Monday. For the remainder of the day, the market’s focus will be on the Eurogroup meeting as investors await any news on the Greek bailout negotiations which have so far reached a deadlock. The extraordinary Eurogroup meeting last Wednesday did not result in any solution.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases monetary policy meeting minutes from its latest meeting on February 3rd when it cut its cash rate to an all-time low of 2.25%. This was the first rate cut in 18 months and some analysts expect more to come. In the European session, focus will be on UK inflation data and German ZEW sentiment data. UK inflation is expected to rise by 0.3% in January on an annual basis from a prior 0.55%. According to a Reuters poll, German economic sentiment is expected to improve to 55.50 in February from 48.40 in January. German investor confidence jumped to the highest level in 11 months last month.
On Wednesday, central banks from Japan, the UK and the US will be in focus. The Bank of Japan releases a monetary policy statement followed by a press conference. This will be closely watched especially after comments from a BoJ official on Thursday that indicated further stimulus would be counterproductive and this helped the yen strengthen.
Later on Wednesday, the Bank of England publishes minutes from its February meeting. It would be interesting to see how the MPC voted. In the previous vote count, it was a unanimous vote. All 9 members voted to keep the main interest rate at 0.5%. Meanwhile, UK unemployment data are also out on Wednesday. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.8%.
Finally in the US session, the Federal Reserve releases its FOMC meeting minutes. These are important to watch for as investors could get some insight into the Fed’s intention of when to hike rates.
On Thursday, Japanese trade data are released. From the Eurozone, current account numbers and consumer confidence data are released. Meanwhile, the ECB will be releasing policy meeting accounts for the first time in an effort to be more transparent. These will be from its January 22nd policy meeting at which it decided to start quantitative easing.
From the US on Thursday, initial jobless claims numbers and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are scheduled to be released.
Friday is Markit PMI day. Early on Friday, Japanese flash manufacturing PMI data are published. Then flash manufacturing and flash services PMIs are out from the Eurozone. These are followed by the US flash manufacturing PMI. The other piece of important data will be from the UK in the form of retail sales. The year-on-year number is expected to rise to 5.7% from 4.3%.