XM Group - Analytics

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    Technical Analysis – USDJPY consolidating after 13-year high at 125.84

    Since hitting a 13-year high of 125.84, the dollar has pulled back versus the yen, reaching a low of 120.40 on July 8.  It has since climbed back up, but the pair has been having trouble holding above the 124 level.

    The overall trend remains bullish and the pair has generally managed to stay above its 100-day average for the past 2 ½ months or so.

    On the downside, the 121-118.50 area is particularly important to hold as it contains the 200-day average (119.76) as well as the six-month (118.50) and the three-month (120.40) lows.

    The MACD indicator is giving a slightly bearish picture as the indicator is below its red signal line, whereas the RSI is slightly bullish at 53.

    Overall the pair is probably undergoing a correction / consolidation before attempting fresh highs.  A catalyst is probably needed however for that to happen – on the dollar side an interest rate increase by the Fed for example or on the yen side a new monetary stimulus package.

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