USDCAD declined to a 7-week low on Thursday, falling into the Ichimoku cloud and below the 50-day moving average for the first time since November 2015. The downside bias looks set to continue as RSI has dropped deeper below 50. However, with the stochastics stuck in oversold territory since the end of January, some degree of rebound or consolidation may be due in the near term.
If the downside pressure continues, the pair is likely to find support at the 100-day moving average around 1.3540. A drop below this level could threaten to halt the long-term uptrend that’s been in place since September 2012.
If prices rebound, resistance is likely to come at 1.41. A successful push above this level would help the pair to target the January 20 high of 1.4689 that’s needed to sustain the longer-term uptrend.
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