NZDUSD has been trading within a range between 0.6544 and 0.6773 since early February but moved towards the lower bound of the range today as it started the week sharply down from Friday’s close. The bottom of the range corresponds with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.6550) of the December-January downleg from 0.6882 to 0.6346.
RSI has dipped just below 50 following the sell-off of the last two days, though the MACD still has some momentum above 0, suggesting the current downside bias is weak. Immediate support comes at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6550, which if broken would increase the downside bias.
To regain upside momentum, the pair would first need to climb above the 50- and 200-day moving averages to re-challenge Friday’s near 3-month high of 0.6773. However, this could prove difficult for NZDUSD as it’s struggled to close above the resistance level of around 0.6715 since early January.
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