NZDUSD has seen a partial reversal of the January-April uptrend that took prices from 0.6346 to 0.7053. It has now retraced 38.2% of this upleg, having rebounded from sharper losses that drove the pair below the 50% Fibonacci level.
Prices have been capped by the 50-day moving average at around 0.6830 for the past two days as the upside momentum from earlier in the week has started to fade. RSI has already dipped back towards neutral at 50, while the MACD remains in negative territory even after the recent gains.
NZDUSD is likely to struggle to rise past the 50-day moving average in the near term but any break above it could see prices finding resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.6885.
In the bigger picture, the outlook remains neutral to bearish. Immediate support comes from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6783. Below that, the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.67 is the next support level. A break below this critical level would strengthen the bearish bias and would also bring the 200-day moving average within reach.
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