GBPAUD hit a one-month low of 1.9065 earlier today but has since rebounded back above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The pair has now retraced just less than 61.8% of the April-May upleg from 1.8292 to 2.0533, dropping below the moving averages and shifting the bias to negative in the process.
The 61.8% Fibonacci level at around 1.9145 is the immediate support area for prices. But holding above this support may prove difficult as RSI is fast approaching oversold levels and the MACD histogram has turned negative. A drop below this support level, would bring 1.90 in focus, while further losses could accelerate the decline towards the April 21 low of 1.8292. Such a move would put the pair back on the long-term downtrend that started in August 2015.
To the upside, GBPAUD is likely to find resistance from the moving averages. Prices were already capped earlier today by the 50-day moving average at 1.9350. An attempt to climb above this level could be met with new resistance at the 100-day moving average, which is converging with the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.94. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level would help shift the bias back to a bullish one.
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