USDCAD has been consolidating since early May after breaking out of the downward trending channel. The downleg from 1.4689 to 1.2460 took prices below the 200-day moving average but with the recent move sideways, the medium-term outlook is looking increasingly neutral.
The near-term bias is also neutral with the MACD flattening out around 0. The 23.6% Fibonacci level of the January-May downtrend capped prices at around 1.2980 earlier today. This is also where the 100-day moving average is converging, while the 200-day moving average is the next key resistance area at around 1.33, which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
To the downside, the 50-day moving average is the nearest support at 1.29. The neutral bias should hold as long as prices keep above the bottom of the recent range at 1.2650. A break below this level would likely shift the bias the negative.
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