As the OPEC’s and ECB’s meetings are over the market attention now turns to the Non-Farm Payrolls from the United States. The job data will be decisive in determining if the FED is to raise rates in 2 weeks so a huge volatility is expected.
- The ADP private payrolls released on Thursday rose 173,000 and an 10,000 jobs upward revision to the data in April. The U.S. telecommunication firm Verizon seven week strike did not affect private payrolls, but it expected to have a negative effect on the NFP which is expected on a range of 160,000 to 190,000 jobs but the Verizon strike effect could take as high as 39,000 jobs off the total. The service sector continues to drive the growth in employment as manufacturing shrinks.
- Not only the headline but also other parts of the report will have their impact on the market. First of all, wages are expected at 0.2% MoM, but an upward surprise shouldn’t be ruled out. A 150k gain in NFP and solid wages will probably push the FED to move in June or July.
- Services data is set to be released, with the Markit Services PMI for May at 13:45 expected to remain unchanged at 51.2, while the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI at 14:00 is expected to show a small decrease to 55.5 in May from 55.7 in April.
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