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    The Brexit polls update

    The referendum campaigns had a break on Friday and the releases of polls where moved to the weekend. The vote is on Thursday.

    The numbers by BMG which appeared on Saturday morning showed an advantage of Brexit opponents, for a change. The full sample taken from the phone interviews had 45% for ’stay’ and 43% for ’leave’ the EU with 11% still undecided. When those with no clear views were taken out it was 52% for the ’remain’ option vs. 48% Wyłączając 

    When the polling agency added some adjustments based on the level of clarity of views (which was graded in the survey) it got 53,3% (stay) and 46,7% (leave), so a significant a 7% difference. Even when only the answers of the absolutely sure are analyzed the result would be the same - a win of the ’remain’ camp. 52,7% vs 47,3%.

    BMG also ran an online poll, but that one had an opposite result 51% (supporting exit) 41% preferring the ULK to stay within the EU and 8% undecided. So a 6pp increase in the advantage of the Brexit supporters. Still BMG admits that the phone interviews are more precise and reliable.

    Over the weekend several more polls were published also quite favourable for the pound:

     

    1. Survation for the Daily Mail (by phone): 45% remain, 42% leave
    2. YouGov (online): 42% remain , 44% leave
    3. YouGov for Sunday Times (online):43% remain, 42% leave

     

    A shift of the dynamics in the polls in favor of the status quo was also seen before the Scottish independence vote in 2014, so this may be the turning point when it comes to what the surveys show.

    GBP is already 1.6% today vs. USD.

     

    Also, there was a weekend edition of The Sunday Times", strongly persuading the British to vote for the Brexit, but for now it seems the wind is blowing in the other direction.

     

    Any person acting on this information does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.


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