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    The referendum begins, final polls

    We are past 7:00, so the referendum has already started. Will it confirm the current shape of the EU or will it lead to further ruptures (and its colapse?)?

    It looks that much is at stake here, and markets certainly understand that with very high volatility we observed in the last days, weeks and months.

    Partial results will start coming just before midnight. THere will be no exit polls, only a quasi exit poll in the form of an internet based YouGov survey

    Here is a summary of the final polls relseased overnight.

    YouGov: (online poll)

    Remain  51%

    Leave 49%

    this pollster has many times showed the ’out’ option in the lead, so this tiny advantage of ’remain’ is quite telling.

    ComRes (based on phone interviews)

    the results among those with a clear view

    Remain 54%

    Leave 46% 

    incl. the undecided

    Remain 48%

    Leave 42%

     

    Any person acting on this information does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.


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