Everyone knows what the main event today is, but let’s look what else can affect the markets - maybe not instantly, maybe not even tomorrow, but when the dust settles after the British referendum.
The following releases can change the fundamental value of the domestic currencies, even if the market proves to be blind, for the time being, to such issues:
- It’s the flash PMIs day. It started with the Japanese reading not extending the bad trend, but not pushing much higher either. We also had French composite PMI sinking below 50 pts, close to this year’s low, with both components (industry and services) now in the contraction zone. German print will follow at 8:30, and the Eurozone one at 9:00 - both expected to be more less flat vs. May also in case of the sector components. However also here there is a risk we will see the Brexit fears denting the sentiment. on the other hand the German ZEW index was pretty upbeat.
- The US will also have its share of sentiment indicator with Chicago Fed at 13:30 and flash PMI at 14:45. Also it is important if jobless claims (13:30) confirm that the downward trend is gone (which would suggest that there is more evidence of a shift in the labour market than just the poor May NFP). New home sales is also an interesting point in the calendar given the surprising strength of the real estate numbers releasaed since the start of May, including the mortgage applications data from yesterday - however the market expects a MoM correction of -9.5%.
- Norges Bank meets to decide on rates - and announces at 9:00. Burdened with the great unknown of the British referendum the Bank is unlikely to do anything else than to wait for the results on the UK future in the EU. The tone of the statement may be still worth analysing.
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