British referendum has officially started. Polls are opened until 22:00 BST, but current market behaviour suggests that Bremain is now a done deal. What happened in the last minutes on the markets looked like a Bremain fire drill before the referendum results start coming this night.
The final YouGov online poll differed from the previous ones in terms of how the result was reported. We have no information on the share of the undecided but instead they were asked another question to try to say if they lean at all in aby of the directions and on that basis they were added to one camp or the other. YouGov said that "this adjustment that increased the position of Remain by a point" which confirms our assumption that there is a strong ’status quo’ bias in the group that has not made up its mind hours before the vote.
The poll from Ipsos Mori showed that remain campaign gained momentum in the final stage of the campagin. The win is quite good looking, but the most important is change that occured in the poll. Last time the poll was published it was "leave" camp that was ahead. Now it all has changed which supports the market.
Not only Brexit is in the spotlight today. Markit economist describing the preliminary June PMI results sees the Eurozone GDP growth slackening from the still solid 1Q 0.6% to 0.3%. He also claims that there is some negative influence of political uncertainty (Britain voting on its further EU membership today) in the survey, while the text tells of only ’few explicit references to a potential Brexit. The good part of the report is tha acceleration in industry with the best new exports subindex since December (also referenced in the report on Germany alone). However overall growth of new business (so when adding the services sector) was one of the weakest in 1.5 years.
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