- Bearish bets on peso cut on bond demand, cooling inflation
- Ringgit long positions near eight-year highs on growth prospects
- Yuan longs maintained; rupiah bears extend
- Rupee, Taiwan dollar shorts pared; baht and SGD stay bid
Feb 19 (Reuters) - Bullish bets on the Malaysian ringgit jumped to their strongest level in nearly 16 years, while bearish positions on the Philippine peso eased to a two‑year low, the latest Reuters fortnightly positioning poll showed on Thursday.
The contrast highlights shifting investor sentiment across Southeast Asia as markets reassess growth prospects, policy paths and capital flows.
Long positions on the ringgit climbed to their highest since mid‑April 2010, extending a rally that pushed the U.S. dollar/ringgit pair to around 3.89 earlier this month - its firmest level since January 2018.
The currency has risen roughly 3% over the past month and about 12% over 2025, making it one of the region's best performers. MUFG senior currency analyst Lloyd Chan linked the strength to expectations of solid growth, steady fiscal settings and improving foreign inflows into Malaysian assets.
The peso has also firmed over the past two weeks, with the local unit rising to around 57.85 against the U.S. dollar on February 13 - its strongest level this year - and leaving it up around 2.4% over the month.
Short positions in the peso have fallen to their lowest since January 11, 2024. Well‑contained inflation and strong demand for local government bonds have supported the currency, Chan said, although he warned that the BSP's 25‑basis‑point rate cut to 4.25% on Thursday could narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S., exposing the peso to external shocks.
The poll was conducted ahead of the BSP decision and Bank Indonesia's move to hold its benchmark rate at 4.75% to support rupiah stability.
Long positions on the Chinese yuan stayed steady, with investors bullish on the currency since early September.
Investors have drawn comfort from stable official fixings and signs of stabilising growth momentum, even as authorities continue to manage the pace of appreciation to support exports.
Elsewhere in the region, bullish bets on the Thai baht rose slightly and have held since early April. The currency strengthened after unofficial results showed the country's ruling party secured most seats in the February 8 general election, a development investors viewed as supporting political continuity.
Positions on the Singapore dollar also nudged higher, with traders continuing to use the currency as a regional defensive proxy.
Short bets on the Taiwan dollar eased to their lowest level since mid‑October, supported by resilient technology exports and episodic equity inflows, though hedging demand could still limit rallies.
Bearish positions on the Indian rupee fell to their lowest since November 13, but investors have been bearish since late May 2025 due to caution about portfolio inflows and current‑account dynamics.
Markets are also weighing the interim U.S.-India trade deal, which includes commitments to reduce purchases of discounted Russian crude. The shift could raise import costs even as it reduces tariff uncertainty.
Chan noted that recent rupee weakness has stemmed from tepid portfolio inflows. The RBI kept its policy rate unchanged earlier this month.
In Indonesia, short bets on the rupiah rose, with investors staying bearish since late August 2025. The currency slid toward 16,900 per dollar this month after Moody's shifted Indonesia's outlook to "negative," and renewed scrutiny from global index providers sharpened concerns over governance and policy predictability.
Investors slightly trimmed their short bets on the South Korean won , which they have maintained since mid‑September last year, with analysts citing soft domestic momentum and persistent capital outflow pressures.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
|
DATE |
USD/CNY |
USD/KRW |
USD/SGD |
USD/IDR |
USD/TWD |
USD/INR |
USD/MYR |
USD/PHP |
USD/THB |
|
19-Feb-2026 |
-1.58 |
0.16 |
-1.19 |
1.21 |
0.12 |
0.95 |
-1.73 |
0.10 |
-0.79 |
|
5-Feb-2026 |
-1.47 |
0.22 |
-1.04 |
1.09 |
0.25 |
1.51 |
-1.58 |
0.47 |
-0.42 |
|
22-Jan-2026 |
-1.64 |
0.72 |
-0.88 |
1.35 |
0.38 |
1.39 |
-1.06 |
1.12 |
-1.01 |
|
8-Jan-2026 |
-1.59 |
0.06 |
-0.92 |
0.97 |
0.54 |
1.31 |
-1.13 |
1.01 |
-1.17 |
|
11-Dec-2025 |
-1.25 |
1.29 |
-0.27 |
0.91 |
0.52 |
1.60 |
-1.19 |
0.97 |
-0.72 |
|
27-Nov-2025 |
-0.96 |
1.62 |
0.02 |
1.15 |
0.63 |
1.21 |
-0.94 |
0.91 |
-0.22 |
|
13-Nov-2025 |
-0.98 |
1.75 |
0.00 |
1.29 |
0.47 |
0.61 |
-0.90 |
0.93 |
-0.30 |
|
30-Oct-2025 |
-0.80 |
1.52 |
-0.17 |
1.11 |
0.20 |
0.55 |
-0.35 |
1.14 |
-0.03 |
|
16-Oct-2025 |
-0.47 |
1.53 |
0.14 |
1.29 |
0.11 |
1.18 |
-0.27 |
0.62 |
-0.16 |
|
2-Oct-2025 |
-0.67 |
0.80 |
-0.38 |
1.47 |
-0.32 |
1.53 |
-0.56 |
0.44 |
-0.76 |
Reporting by Roushni Nair in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman
Source: Reuters