SINGAPORE, Feb 10 (Reuters) - China's coal output is expected to rise 35 million metric tons to 4.86 billion tons in 2026, a major coal industry group said on Tuesday, the slowest pace this decade despite projections of a second consecutive fall in annual imports due to top supplier Indonesia halting spot exports.
Production by the world's biggest producer, consumer and importer of coal is set to rise 0.7% this year, while imports are set to fall 5.1% to 465 million tons, China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD) said.
"News of Indonesia's reduction in production quotas and the reinstatement of export tariffs has created expectations of a significant decrease in Indonesian coal imports," the CCTD said.
Miners in Indonesia have halted spot coal exports after the government proposed deep production cuts to shore up plunging prices. China will dip into its inventories this year as the pace of consumption will exceed supply growth, the association said.
"If imported coal experiences a more significant reduction, domestic production can still increase."
China's coal-fired power generation fell in 2025 for the first time in a decade as its growing renewable fleet helped meet a 5% increase in power demand to a record high. Proposals to build new coal-fired power plants are surging, but China is still on track for a peak in emissions by 2030, analysts say.
"Coal plants are shifting from primary power suppliers to flexibility providers," consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a statement, adding that portions of the coal fleet are transitioning to reserve status.
Utilisation rates of coal-fired power have declined from 60% in 2011 to 48.2% in 2025, the statement said, adding that the consultancy expects utilisation to decline to 32% by 2035.
Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Anil D'Silva
Source: Reuters