Economic news

Dollar Rises as Oil Climbs, Fed Rate-Hike Bets Firm

  • Treasury 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2007
  • Fed hike on Wednesday seen as done deal
  • Dollar strength pushes kiwi to two-month low
  • Yen falls to 155 for first time in a week

Sept 15 (Reuters) - The euro was pinned ​at one-month lows against a broadly strengthening dollar on Tuesday, as surging oil prices lifted Treasury yields and ‌reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this week.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surged to their highest since 2007, last up 4.1 basis points on the day to 5.004%.

Oil prices held near a four-month peak, standing at over $105 a barrel, after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched a new wave of attacks ​on Saudi Arabia and Gulf-Iran talks were postponed.

Markets now see a Fed hike on Wednesday as a near certainty, with ​CME's FedWatch tool pricing in a more than 92% chance of an interest-rate increase.

"It's quite likely they ⁠will hike at this point. What's happening in the bond market is a warning signal, and if they decide to hold ​rates at this stage, it can lead to unwanted turmoil," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.

"From an FX perspective, we ​see it as a positive event for the dollar."

Pressured by broad dollar strength, the euro <EUR=EBS> slipped 0.1% to $1.154, hovering near its lowest since August 14.

Sterling weakened 0.1% to $1.348 ahead of a Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday where consensus is widely tilted towards a hold, though future rate hikes ​are expected by year-end, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Data on Tuesday showed Britain's jobs market stayed weak, with vacancies at a ​four-year low and pay growth steady.

The yen also pulled away from a seven-month high, leaving the dollar up roughly 0.3% at 154.8 ahead of an expected ‌Bank ⁠of Japan rate hike on Friday. It briefly weakened past 155 for the first time in a week earlier on.

Market sentiment on the yen is starting to shift, with speculators turning to a net long position on the Japanese currency for the first time since February .

The New Zealand dollar dipped 0.2%, hitting a two-month low, while the Australian dollar was 0.1% lower at $0.713.

The dollar's six-currency ​index rose 0.1% to 99.58, standing ​near its highest in about ⁠two weeks, also gaining support from weakened risk appetite as stock markets fell.

RATE HIKES AWAITED

The renewed energy-induced inflation pressures follow a U.S. jobs report that was much stronger than expected and a pickup ​in consumer prices for August, strengthening market conviction that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday.

Economists polled ​by Reuters also ⁠expect at least one more hike by the end of March, reversing a fragile no-change consensus prior to Friday's official data showing firm inflation.

"If the Fed is viewed as beginning a new hiking cycle rather than calibrating monetary policy, monetary policy could have spillovers to risk ⁠assets," Gabriele ​Foà, a portfolio manager at Algebris Investments said in a note.

The offshore ​yuan was flat at 6.712 per dollar, hovering near its strongest in more than three years, after data showing China's industrial sector regained strength in August, though consumption ​remained sluggish.

Reporting by Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Amanda Cooper, Jan Harvey and Chizu Nomiyama

Source: Reuters


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