* German Bund yields hover near 3-month lows
* U.S. inflation expected at 4.9% in June
* EU to lead slate of bond supply
* Euro zone periphery govt bond yields
LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields held steady near recent lows on Tuesday before the release of U.S. consumer price data, with inflation in the world’s biggest economy widely expected to tick marginally lower from last month.
A Reuters poll shows expectations are for inflation in the United States to come in at 4.9% for the month of June when the data is released at 1230 GMT, compared to 5% the month before.
Even though the so-called “reflation” trade -- inflation fuelled by fiscal stimulus -- has lost steam in recent weeks, analysts still believe this is one of the most important data prints for markets at the moment.
“The last couple of releases have both surprised to the upside, which in turn prompted the Fed to shift in a hawkish direction and pencil in a couple of rate hikes for 2023,” said Deutsche Bank macro strategist Jim Reid.
He said observers would be watching to see whether price pressures are coming from areas associated with the reopening of economies after the COVID-19 pandemic or are spreading to other categories that could signal a more permanent increase.
ING strategists said the key implication is not just for when the U.S. Federal Reserve will taper its extraordinary stimulus, but also for how quickly it will move from its current pace of $120 billion of asset purchases a month to zero.
Euro zone government bond yields have fallen in line with U.S. Treasuries in recent weeks, and are running close to their lowest levels since early April.
Germany’s 10-year bond yield was unchanged at -0.30%, close to a three-month low of -0.344% that was hit last week, and well away from this year’s high of -0.074% hit in May.
Other major European government bond yields were also close to recent lows, possibly setting the bond market up for a selloff in case of an upward surprise in inflation.,
Euro zone yield yields are also being anchored by a recent shift in the European Central Bank’s emphasis on asset purchases over interest rate cuts, suggesting a correction would be limited.
A large slate of debt supply is due to hit the screens on Tuesday, with the European Union, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy due to sell bonds.
The EU is set to sell a new 20-year bond through a syndicate of banks for an expected 10 billion euro size, and Germany and Italy will sell short-dated debt through an auction. The Netherlands is due to tap its January 2042 bonds.
(Reporting by Abhinav Ramnarayan, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
Source: Reuters