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Extreme EU Heat Could Wipe Out 2026 Growth, Triodos Says

Aug 10 (Reuters) - The extreme heat and drought affecting large parts of Europe this summer could erase ​much of the economic growth expected across ‌the region, Dutch bank Triodos said in a report on Saturday.

The bank, which specialises in financing environmentally and ​socially sustainable projects, estimates that heat-related ​disruption could shave around 1% off the European ⁠Union's gross domestic product, equivalent to roughly €180 ​billion ($208 billion) in economic losses, driven primarily by ​weaker labour productivity.

  • Labour productivity losses alone could cut EU GDP by around 0.6%, while agricultural output is expected ​to fall by 3% to 7%.

  • "Higher food prices, constrained ​power generation and higher electricity prices, and disruption to roads, ‌rail ⁠and inland waterways add to the damage," Triodos said.

  • France is expected to be the hardest hit, with recurring heatwaves reducing GDP by around 1.4% and ​potentially tipping ​it into ⁠an annual contraction of 0.6%.

  • Italy, Spain and Belgium also face substantial losses, ​while countries such as Poland, which ​experienced ⁠fewer exceptionally hot days, are expected to be less affected.

  • The European Commission has forecast EU GDP ⁠growth of ​1.1%, while the IMF ​expects the euro area to grow by around 0.9%.

($1 = 0.8657 euros)

Reporting ​by Jakob Van Calster, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak

Source: Reuters


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