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GBP Steady on Inflation Data, Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty

April 22 (Reuters) - The British pound was little changed on Wednesday as markets grappled with continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, even after U.S. President ​Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran.

It was unclear whether Iran or ‌Israel - Washington's ally in the two-month conflict - agreed with the extension, and the prospect of peace talks was uncertain as the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route remained blocked.

Meanwhile, British inflation data ​showed early price pressures linked to the conflict. Consumer price inflation ​rose to an annual rate of 3.3% in March from 3.0% ⁠in February, in line with expectations.

"In aggregate, inflation was a little bit higher ​than previously, but nothing aggressive," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy ​at Nomura, adding that inflation readings were likely to climb further later in the year.

"I think sterling's going to look at this like, it could be better, it could be worse," ​he said.

The pound was last marginally higher at $1.3516 , while the euro was little ​changed against sterling at 86.88 pence .

Markets have also been closely focused on interest-rate expectations after ‌the ⁠Iran war pushed up inflation forecasts. Money markets were last pricing in one Bank of England rate hike this year, with some chance of a second.

The BoE is, however, widely expected to leave rates unchanged when it meets later this ​month, with markets assigning ​only about a ⁠10% chance of a hike.

Policymakers face "an unenviable balancing act," said Zara Nokes, global market analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

"There ​are clear upside risks to inflation, particularly if households – who ​have become ⁠accustomed to persistent price pressures for some time – demand higher wages to restore their eroded purchasing power," she said, while noting that a weakening labour market and ⁠falling vacancies ​could hit consumption and amplify downside risks ​to growth.

The BoE will want to assess which of those risks dominates, Nokes added.

Reporting by Sophie Kiderlin. Editing by Mark Potter

Source: Reuters


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