Nov 27 (Reuters) - Some major banks expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.
The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%.
Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the United Kingdom.
A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative, cost-efficient production destinations.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
|
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 |
||||||
|
GLOBAL |
U.S. |
CHINA |
EURO AREA |
UK |
INDIA |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
2.60% |
2.10% |
4.80% |
0.90% |
0.6% |
6.3% |
|
Morgan Stanley |
2.80% |
1.90% |
4.20% |
0.50% |
-0.1% |
6.4% |
|
UBS |
2.60% |
1.10% |
4.40% |
0.60% |
0.6% |
6.2% |
|
Barclays |
2.60% |
1.20% |
4.40% |
0.30% |
0.1% |
6.2% |
|
J.P.Morgan |
2.20% |
1.60% |
4.90% |
0.40% |
0.2% |
5.7% |
|
HSBC |
4.90% |
|||||
|
BofA Global Research |
2.8% |
1.4% |
4.8% |
0.50% |
0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Deutsche Bank |
2.4% |
0.6% |
4.7% |
0.20% |
0.3% |
6.0% |
|
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024) |
Federal funds target rate (Dec '24) |
||
|
Headline CPI |
Core PCE |
||
|
Goldman Sachs |
2.40% |
2.60% |
5.13% |
|
Morgan Stanley |
2.10% |
2.70% |
4.375% |
|
UBS |
2.70% |
2.75% |
|
|
Wells Fargo |
2.50% |
2.60% |
4.75%-5.00% |
|
Barclays |
2.70% |
5.25%-5.50% |
|
|
J.P.Morgan |
2.50% |
2.50% |
4.50% |
|
BofA Global Research |
2.80% |
4.50%-4.75% |
|
|
Deutsche Bank |
2.10% |
3.63% |
The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.
|
S&P 500 target |
US 10-year yield target |
EUR/USD |
USD/JPY |
USD/CNY |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
4700 |
4.55% |
1.10 |
150.00 |
7.15 |
|
Morgan Stanley |
4500 |
1 |
140 |
7.5 |
|
|
UBS |
4600 |
3.60% |
1.15 |
130 |
7.15 |
|
Wells Fargo |
4600-4800 |
4.75%-5.25% |
1.08-1.12 |
136-140 |
|
|
Barclays |
4.25% |
1.09 |
145 |
7.20 |
|
|
J.P.Morgan |
3.75% |
1.13 |
146 |
7.15 |
|
|
BofA Global Research |
5000 |
4.25% |
1.15 |
142 |
6.90 |
|
Deutsche Bank |
5100 |
4.10% |
1.10 |
135 |
|
|
Societe Generale |
4750 |
3.75% |
1.15 |
As of 1107 GMT on Nov. 27, 2023:
S&P 500: 4,559.34
US 10-year yield : 4.4684%
EUR/USD : 1.0952
USD/CNY : 7.1524
USD/JPY : 148.97
Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Anil D'Silva
Source: Reuters