Economic news

Gold Falls as Mideast Uncertainty Clouds Rate Outlook

  • Iran says new US strikes violate ceasefire
  • US April PCE data due on Thursday
  • Fed's Kashkari calls for focus on inflation risk
  • Traders see 37% chance of 25 bp Fed rate ​hike in December

May 27 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell for a second ‌session on Wednesday as expectations for a swift resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict faded, keeping inflation concerns alive and clouding the interest rate outlook.

Spot gold was down 1.3% at $4,448.43 per ounce, as of 1110 GMT. U.S. ​gold futures for June delivery fell 1.3% to $4,446.20.

Iran said on Tuesday the United ​States had violated a ceasefire by striking targets near the contested Strait of ⁠Hormuz, potentially complicating efforts to bring the war to a close.

"Prices have dropped, approaching ​support at $4,450 as hopes waver for a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Adding to gold's woes are ​steadily rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates amid conflict-induced price pressures," said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

"Ultimately, further signs of rising price pressure may reinforce bets that the ​Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer – exposing gold to greater downside risk."

Minneapolis Fed ​President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday that the central bank must focus on containing inflationary risks that appear ‌to ⁠be building, though it was "far too soon" to predict when it could next change interest rates.

Investors are pricing in a Fed rate hike this year, with a 37% chance of a 25 basis-point hike in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. FEDWATCH

While gold is ​often seen as a ​hedge against inflation, higher ⁠rates tend to weigh on the non-yielding metal.

Investors also await comments from other Fed policymakers, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor ​Lisa Cook, to gauge the impact of inflation on future monetary ​policy stance.

The ⁠April U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, due on Thursday, could offer more clues on the monetary policy.

Meanwhile, "any de-escalation (in the U.S.-Iran conflict) generally has a positive effect on the gold price, which is why ⁠we ​expect the gold price to rise again by the ​end of the year," Commerzbank said in a note.

Spot silver fell 3.3% to $74.38 per ounce, platinum slid 1.9% to $1,921.04, ​and palladium was down 0.4% at $1,385.03.

Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by David Holmes

Source: Reuters


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