- July trade surplus $0.13 bln, vs $0.2 bln deficit in Reuters poll
- Exports +6%, vs poll's 3.4%
- Imports +27%, vs the poll's +24%
- August inflation remains within central bank target
JAKARTA, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Indonesia posted its first trade surplus in three months in July as exports rose faster than expected, although analysts warned that strong imports could still strain the external balance.
Southeast Asia's biggest economy booked a surplus of about $130 million, Statistics Indonesia data showed on Tuesday, compared with a $200 million deficit forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. In June, the country had recorded a $450 million deficit.
Resource-rich Indonesia had posted monthly trade surpluses for about six years before slipping into deficit in May, as imports surged on high fuel prices and President Prabowo Subianto's push to support growth.
Exports in July rose 6% from a year earlier to $26.22 billion, above the poll's 3.36% growth estimate on the back of strong shipments of coal, refined nickel, basic chemical goods and aluminium products. Imports jumped 27% to $26.09 billion, topping the 24% forecast.
The world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, palm oil and nickel has benefited this year from higher prices of some of its top commodities, with some gains driven by rising global crude prices following the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Indonesia's oil imports jumped around 50% in July, while oil and gas exports dropped as the government asked contractors to prioritise domestic sales.
Bank Danamon economist Irman Faiz called the trade surplus "modest" and said it supported his view that the current account deficit would likely widen to 1.5% of GDP in 2026 from 0.1% in 2025.
"Commodity prices should provide near-term support to exports, but strong capital and intermediate-goods imports are likely to persist alongside the investment cycle," he said.
"Indonesia's trade buffer should therefore remain considerably thinner than in previous commodity upcycles."
Bank Permata economist Faisal Rachman said a widening current account gap would pressure the rupiah exchange rate, raising imported inflation risks.
Bank Indonesia's incoming governor, Destry Damayanti, said the central bank would prioritise stability and work with the government to control inflation.
Statistics Indonesia data showed inflation remained benign in August amid increased subsidies to keep fuel prices steady.
Annual inflation picked up to 3.19% in August from 2.88% in July, slightly above the poll's 3.13% forecast and within the central bank's 1.5% to 3.5% target range.
Core inflation, which strips out government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, was 2.92%, compared with the poll's 2.8% forecast and July's 2.76%.
Faisal said he expected headline inflation to be above 3% at the end of the year.
Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo, Bernadette Christina, Fransiska Nangoy, Dewi Kurniawati; Editing by Martin Petty and Subhranshu Sahu
Source: Reuters