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INR Slumps as Elevated Crude, Treasury Yields Support USD

MUMBAI, June 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee reversed nearly all of the previous session's rally on Monday, pressured by rising oil ​prices, fragile risk appetite and patchy corporate flows.

A raft of measures ‌aimed at supporting the currency battered by the impact of the months-long Iran war had boosted the rupee to its best day in two months on Friday.

However, rising crude ​and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike have offset ​their positive impact.

The rupee ended down 0.8% in its sharpest fall ⁠in four weeks to settle at 95.7075 per dollar.

Still, analysts say the ​measures to attract dollars would lead to $30 billion to $50 billion of money flowing ​in.

"The RBI has provided meaningful support to the rupee, but external factors will remain crucial. Any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, leading to a stronger dollar or higher oil prices, ​could temporarily push the pair upwards," said Amit Pabari, managing director at ​FX advisory firm CR Forex.

Brent crude jumped over 4% after Israel launched fresh strikes on ‌Lebanon ⁠despite an existing truce, weakening hopes of a broader regional de-escalation and delaying the possible resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The crude spike brought external risks back into focus for the rupee, given India's heavy dependence ​on imports and the ​currency's sensitivity to ⁠swings in energy prices.

Higher oil prices typically widen India's import bill, pressure the current account, and increase demand for ​dollars from oil companies.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data has reinforced ​expectations that ⁠the Fed could raise interest rates before the end of this year, which pushed Treasury yields higher.

Elevated U.S. yields tend to support the dollar and weigh on ⁠emerging-market ​currencies by narrowing the relative appeal of local ​assets.

While speculators stepped in to sell dollars earlier in the day, corporate outflows weighed on the ​currency, traders said.

Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala and Janane Venkatraman

Source: Reuters


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