RABAT, March 17 (Reuters) - Morocco's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Tuesday, saying inflation would remain moderate this year despite heightened global economic uncertainties around conflict in the Gulf. The impact of war in the Middle East would remain "relatively contained" in the baseline scenario of a short‑lived conflict, the central bank said.
However, the repercussions could become "more significant" if it were to drag on or escalate, particularly through external‑account pressures and higher energy prices, it added.
Inflation is expected to remain stable at 0.8% in 2026, before picking up to 1.4% next year, the central bank said in a statement after its quarterly meeting.
The central bank revised upwards its growth forecast in 2026 to 5.6%, from 4.8% last year thanks to an improvement in farming output after abundant rainfall ended a seven-year drought.
The cereals harvest is seen growing to 8.2 million metric tons this year, the central bank said.
Growth would slow to 3.5% next year, assuming an average harvest, it said.
Morocco's current account deficit is expected to expand to 3.1% of GDP in 2026, from 2.3% last year, due to a surge in energy imports. Phosphate and fertiliser sales, remittances from Moroccans abroad, tourism and foreign direct investment would rise in 2026, it said.
Morocco's foreign exchange reserves are seen growing to 482 billion dirhams ($51.5 billion) by 2027, enough to cover 5.5 months of import needs, the central bank said.
Reporting by Ahmed Eljechtimi; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Alexander Smith
Source: Reuters