Oct 7 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan and BofA Global Research have joined a growing rank of major brokerages that expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points in November.
BofA and J.P.Morgan have reduced their estimate to 25 bps from 50 bps after the blowout U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday pointed to a resilient economy.
Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Macquarie and Deutsche Bank reiterated their forecasts of a 25 bps cut each in November and December.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the jobs report:
|
Rate cut estimates (in bps) |
||||
|
2024 |
||||
|
Nov |
Dec |
2025 |
Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025 |
|
|
BofA Global Research |
25 |
25 |
125 |
3.0%-3.25% (end 2025) |
|
Deutsche Bank |
25 |
25 |
125 |
3.25%-3.50% |
|
Barclays |
25 |
25 |
75 |
3.50%-3.75% |
|
Macquarie |
25 |
25 |
100 (through June 2025) |
3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
|
Goldman Sachs |
25 |
25 |
100 (through June 2025) |
3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
|
J.P.Morgan |
25 |
25 |
150 (through September 2025) |
3.0% (through September 2025) |
|
UBS Global Wealth Management |
50 |
100 |
3.25%-3.50% |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the jobs data:
|
Rate cut estimates (in bps) |
||||
|
2024 |
||||
|
Nov |
Dec |
2025 |
Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025 |
|
|
BofA Global Research |
50 |
25 |
125 |
|
|
UBS Global Wealth Management |
50 |
100 |
3.25%-3.50% |
|
|
Deutsche Bank |
25 |
25 |
125 |
3.25%-3.50% |
|
Barclays |
25 |
25 |
75 |
3.50%-3.75% |
|
Morgan Stanley |
25 |
25 |
100 (through June 2025) |
3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
|
Macquarie |
25 |
25 |
100 (through June 2025) |
3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
|
Goldman Sachs |
25 |
25 |
100 (through June 2025) |
3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
|
Citigroup |
50 |
25 |
||
|
J.P.Morgan |
50 |
25 |
||
|
HSBC |
25 |
25 |
100 (through June 2025) |
3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath, Varun H K and Shilpi Majumdar
Source: Reuters