Economic news

Most Brokerages Expect 25 bps of Fed Rate Cuts in November

Oct 7 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan and BofA Global Research have joined a growing rank of major brokerages that expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points in November.

BofA and J.P.Morgan have reduced their estimate to 25 bps from 50 bps after the blowout U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday pointed to a resilient economy.

Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Macquarie and Deutsche Bank reiterated their forecasts of a 25 bps cut each in November and December.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the jobs report:

 

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

 

2024

   
 

Nov

Dec

2025

Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025

BofA Global Research

25

25

125

3.0%-3.25% (end 2025)

Deutsche Bank

25

25

125

3.25%-3.50%

Barclays

25

25

75

3.50%-3.75%

Macquarie

25

25

100 (through June 2025)

3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025)

Goldman Sachs

25

25

100 (through June 2025)

3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025)

J.P.Morgan

25

25

150 (through September 2025)

3.0% (through September 2025)

UBS Global Wealth Management

50

100

3.25%-3.50%

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the jobs data:

 

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

 

2024

   
 

Nov

Dec

2025

Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025

BofA Global Research

50

25

125

 

UBS Global Wealth Management

50

100

3.25%-3.50%

Deutsche Bank

25

25

125

3.25%-3.50%

Barclays

25

25

75

3.50%-3.75%

Morgan Stanley

25

25

100 (through June 2025)

3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025)

Macquarie

25

25

100 (through June 2025)

3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025)

Goldman Sachs

25

25

100 (through June 2025)

3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025)

Citigroup

50

25

   

J.P.Morgan

50

25

   

HSBC

25

25

100 (through June 2025)

3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025)

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath, Varun H K and Shilpi Majumdar

Source: Reuters


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