Goldman Sachs said a potential recovery in Iran exports won’t come as an “exogenous” shock to the oil market and full recovery won’t occur until summer 2022, as U.S. and Iranian officials were due to begin indirect talks in Vienna on Tuesday on the Iran nuclear deal.
“With OPEC+ appearing to manage its exit for now, supply concerns will likely shift to the potential return of Iran to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) agreement,” Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Monday.
The United States expects the talks with Iran, about both sides resuming compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, to be “difficult” and does not foresee any early breakthrough.
The path to an agreement would still likely take months, Goldman Sachs said, adding that other OPEC+ producers would accommodate a potential ramp-up in Iran’s production.
A normalization in Iranian exports before the end of 2021 would reduce Goldman’s year-end 2021 and 2022 Brent forecast of $75 per barrel by $5, while the lack of an agreement in 2022 would create more than $10 upside risk, it said.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as investors looked for bargains after prices plunged more than 4% on Monday on rising output from OPEC+, and as strong economic data from the United States and China brightened recovery prospects.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday to gradually ease its oil output cuts from May.
Goldman said it expects a significant rebound in oil demand this summer even after expecting an additional 2 million barrels per day increase in OPEC+ production after July.
Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton