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Rupee Firms, Volatility Rises Ahead of Fed Decision

MUMBAI, July 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee strengthened to a near three-week peak on Wednesday, supported by a rally in local ​stocks and traders trimming bearish positions ahead of the U.S. Federal ‌Reserve's policy decision later in the day.

Traders also said that state-run banks sold dollars in short-lived bursts, blunting pressure from dollar demand related to the monthly futures expiry.

The rupee ​closed at 95.6475 per dollar, up 0.2% from Wednesday's closing level. The ​currency touched a peak of 95.49 earlier in the session, ⁠its strongest level since July 10.

Meanwhile, Brent crude jumped more than 3.5% ​to $87.1 per barrel, as Middle East tensions escalated following joint U.S.-Saudi strikes in ​Iraq and the interception of Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at U.S. forces in the region.

Brent has swung between $102 and $84 per barrel since Friday amid conflicting reports on the hostilities.

Against this ​backdrop of global volatility, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy ​decision later in the day. Markets are pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a ‌25-basis-point ⁠hike.

Reflecting the uncertainty, near-term rupee volatility expectations rose, with the 1-month implied volatility gauge at 5.4%, near a two-week high.

"The (Fed) statement might acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by renewed geopolitical conflict, and there will likely be at ​least one dissent ​in favor of ⁠a hike," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. They expect the U.S. central bank to keep rates ​unchanged on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, global shares struggled to push higher, as ​modest gains ⁠in Europe and the U.S. did little to calm investors after a punishing sell-off in Asia led by chipmakers.

India's limited exposure to the AI theme, though, ⁠proved a ​silver lining, with India's benchmark stock gauge climbing ​1.1%, led by an over 2% rise in IT stocks that had previously been battered by ​AI disruption concerns.

Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala and Eileen Soreng

Source: Reuters


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