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Rupee Ends Slightly Lower ahead of Key Central Bank Rate

MUMBAI, June 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee dipped on Thursday, extending a two-session decline, ahead of Friday's all-important Reserve Bank of India ​monetary policy review, where traders are widely anticipating steps to support ‌the currency.

The rupee closed at 95.7850 per U.S. dollar, from 95.7050 on Wednesday. The currency meandered in a narrow range through the session, pressured by weaker Asian peers and importer ​hedging after a central bank intervention-led relief rally.

The rupee has recovered ground ​after the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in spot and forward ⁠markets helped it rebound from a record low of 96.96 hit around mid-May.

The RBI's activity has ​provided breathing room for the rupee and dragged down FX premiums, a currency ​trader at a private sector bank said.

Lower forward premiums reduce the cost for importers to hedge future dollar payments, while disincentivising exporters from hedging.

Market expectations of measures to boost inflows ​and support the currency have further aided the recovery.

India may cut capital gains ​tax on foreign investment in government bonds as one way to boost inflows, Reuters and ‌other ⁠news media reported on Thursday. Other measures widely anticipated include schemes incentivising non-resident deposits and hedging cost relief for companies raising overseas debt.

If Friday’s RBI policy does not deliver steps to support the currency, expect renewed pressure, especially now that ​the rupee has corrected ​and forward ⁠premiums have come off, the trader added.

The RBI is expected to keep interest rates on hold on Friday, according to ​most economists, though traders are more evenly split on whether ​the central ⁠bank will opt for a hike or keep the policy repo rate unchanged.

A rate hike is expected to lift the rupee, though traders doubt how long the ⁠relief ​would last.

Meanwhile, most Asian currencies weakened and regional ​equities slipped. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities rattled risk assets, while mixed signals on de-escalation kept investors wary.

Reporting ​by Nimesh Vora and Ira Dugal; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar and Eileen Soreng

Source: Reuters


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