- Exports forecast at +45.3% y/y in April (vs +49.2% in March)
- AI-led chip boom more than offsetting Iran war impact, say economists
- Import growth, inflation seen accelerating on oil prices
SEOUL, April 29 (Reuters) - South Korean exports likely rose in April for an 11th straight month, with a surge in chip demand driven by artificial intelligence investment more than offsetting a hit from the Middle East conflict, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Import growth and consumer inflation were seen quickening due to high oil prices as the conflict in the Middle East has upended energy markets.
Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 45.3% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 20 economists.
That would be slightly weaker than the previous month's increase of 49.2%, which was the strongest year-on-year rise since August 1988, but still the second-fastest in the current gaining streak that started in June 2025.
The trade-reliant economy delivered its strongest growth in nearly six years last quarter, smashing forecasts on booming chip exports, though rising risks from the Iran war threaten to cut into the record earnings.
Last week, chipmaker SK Hynix announced a record quarterly profit with a fivefold jump in its first-quarter earnings. Peer Samsung Electronics had projected earlier this month that its quarterly earnings would exceed its entire profit for last year.
"Exports are expected to post a fresh record high in April in terms of value, as they did in March, on a surge in chip exports," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities. "Despite the adverse effect of high oil prices, the robust semiconductor-led trend will continue in the second quarter."
In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 49.4% from a year earlier as semiconductor sales jumped 182.5%. Exports of petroleum products rose 48.4%, while those of autos and auto parts fell 14.1% and 8.8%, respectively.
"For the time being, there is a possibility of the impact of the Iran war being felt in a distorted manner due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.
"While petroleum product exports are rising on higher prices, growth in crude oil imports is being limited due to supply disruptions, resulting in positive contribution to net exports."
In the monthly survey conducted during April 23 to 28, imports were projected to have risen 14.5% this month from a year earlier. This would be faster than the increase of 13.2% last month and the fastest since September 2022.
Consumer inflation was also seen accelerating to 2.6% in April from 2.2% in March, which would be the fastest year-on-year increase since July 2024.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for April on Friday, May 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT) and inflation data on Wednesday, May 6, at 8 a.m.
Reporting by Jihoon Lee in Seoul, Polling by Renusri K and Rahul Trivedi in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu
Source: Reuters