- Exports forecast at +59.0% y/y in July (vs +70.7 in June) Underlying chip-led strength remains intact, economists say Stock market plunges even as chipmakers post record profits
SEOUL, July 30 (Reuters) - South Korean exports likely extended robust growth in July, with the pace weakening from a near-half-century high but posting the second-strongest gains in the current winning streak led by surging AI chip demand, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were forecast to rise 59.0% in value in July from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 15 economists in the survey.
That would be slower than the 70.7% surge in June, which was the biggest jump since 1978, but still the second-strongest annual growth rate in the current streak that started in June 2025.
The export gains continue to be driven by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as memory chip prices climb amid a global surge in AI investment, analysts said.
"A large part of the growth rate reflects rising semiconductor prices. The increase in shipment volumes is much more modest," said Ha Keon-hyeong, an economist at Shinhan Securities.
In the first 20 days of July, exports rose 52.3% from a year earlier, as semiconductor shipments jumped 180.6%.
"The underlying strength in exports is unlikely to change much given the ongoing semiconductor boom," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities, noting slower growth was partly due to fewer working days than last July.
The survey result comes as South Korean equities have been rocked by a sharp selloff, with the benchmark KOSPI tumbling more than 30% this month on AI-related worries.
SK Hynix's record second-quarter profit on Wednesday missed lofty investor expectations, adding to the declines.
Samsung Electronics said on Thursday that AI chip demand would stay strong and supply short this year, after posting a more than 250-fold rise in semiconductor profit in the second quarter.
The survey tipped imports to rise 26.6% in July from a year earlier, after rising 30.0% in June. The monthly trade surplus was forecast at a median $29.59 billion, compared with $36.09 billion in the previous month.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for July on Saturday, August 1, at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).
Reporting by Hyeyoon Cho and Jihoon Lee; Editing by Jamie Freed
Source: Reuters