GBP Eases vs. USD and EUR, BoE Credit Conditions Survey Eyed

After a sizeable drop against the dollar in the middle of June, sterling has been range-bound, holding above the $1.37 mark. On Thursday, it traded 0.2% lower on the day at $1.3777 by 0820 GMT.

Factors that have weighed on the currency are a still dovish Bank of England, as well as the dollar’s own head of steam in recent weeks following a surprise hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.

Against the euro, sterling traded 0.4% lower at 85.73 pence , with analysts at ING noting a continued fall in traded volatility levels.

“At the margin one could say that the ECB strategy review should be bearish for euro-sterling - but that’s a stretch,” strategists Chris Turner, Petr Krpata and Francesco Pesole said in a morning note.

The European Central Bank will announce the outcome on Thursday of an 18-month strategy review, redefining an inflation target.

ING also noted the Bank of England’s (BoE) quarterly survey of credit conditions would be released on Thursday, which will provide insights on lending volumes and credit spreads.

“It may be too early to expect lending volumes to have picked up. Current BoE pricing of the first 10bp hike in summer 2022 and the first full 25bp hike in March 23 feel about right - although could get pushed back a bit should the current unwind of optimism continue.”

Sterling has found some support this week on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plans to end social and economic COVID-19 restrictions in England.

But investors remain cautious as the government also warned that the number of coronavirus cases could climb as measures are relaxed.

British house prices saw their most widespread rises since 1988 last month, but fewer homes were put up for sale and buyer demand grew less quickly ahead of the end of a tax break on property purchases, an industry survey showed.