- Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could generate volatility
- Jobs report in focus, with Fed seen on hold for now
- Dollar grinds higher, stocks in Europe rise
SINGAPORE/LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged higher on Friday ahead of a crucial U.S. report, while investors awaited a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs that jolted markets last year.
Simmering geopolitical tensions across the globe boosted oil prices, as well as defence stocks, and will remain in traders' minds as they weigh developments in Venezuela, Iran and Greenland. Much of the focus on Friday will be on the possible U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
Striking down the tariffs could impact U.S. government revenue, pushing Treasury yields higher and unleashing new waves of volatility across markets.
However, while this could raise some concerns about government finances, Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said the Supreme Court ruling is the "real wildcard" for markets on Friday. If the courts slap down U.S. tariffs, it would be a big boost to market sentiment, he said.
"A constraint may be that even if the tariffs are ruled unlawful, the Trump administration is unlikely to roll over and will look to other ways to maintain the levies."
For now, traders remain reluctant to place bets ahead of the market-moving events.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index started the day higher, last up around 0.4%. Major regional indices were in positive territory, with the French CAC 40 adding around 0.6%.
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei surged 1.6%, buoyed by a strong earnings and forecast from Fast Retailing, the operator of the Uniqlo clothing brand.
The S&P 500 ended flat on Thursday, although an aerospace and defence index rose to an all-time high, with European defence shares also hitting a new high. S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, suggesting a modest rise at the open later.
US JOBS REPORT ON DECK
Another key focus point will be December’s U.S. jobs report, which comes after a flurry of labour market data points released earlier in the week.
“On the good side, I would say that there is no recession signal out of this labour market, and that's positive. Perhaps on the more subdued side, there is no sign either of strong reacceleration. I think this is consistent with a relatively moderately growing economy, so no overheating, no growth above potential, no recession risk, nothing to be fearful about,” Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, said.
U.S. jobs data earlier in the week from the JOLTS hirings report and ADP private sector payrolls showed employment in the world's largest economy is slowing.
“So we want the signals from the JOLTs that we got a couple of days ago, from the ADP, from the claims that we got yesterday, we want these signals to be confirmed today. And basically what we don't want is an upside surprise on the unemployment rate or on job creation,” Chaar said.
Right now, markets are pricing in two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. A strong monthly employment report could see that expectation pared back.
Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 60,000 jobs last month after rebounding by 64,000 in November, a Reuters survey of economists estimated. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, the largest decrease in nearly five years, mostly federal government employees who took deferred buyouts.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was steady at 4.189% after rising 4.5 basis points the previous day. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, hovered around a one-month high.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday he expected Trump to make a decision soon on who would replace Jerome Powell as the Fed chair's term ends in May, with markets expecting the president to appoint a dovish candidate.
Oil prices headed on Friday for their largest weekly rise since late October, sitting near a two-week high as investors contended with developments in Venezuela and worried about supplies from Russia, Iraq and Iran. In a social media post on Friday, Trump said he had cancelled a previously expected second wave of attacks on Venezuela following cooperation from the South American country.
Separately, foreign embassies in Venezuela are beginning to arrange visits for next week that will include representatives for American and European oil companies, two sources told Reuters.
Brent futures LCOc1 dipped 0.23% to $61.85 a barrel, but were still heading for a weekly gain of almost 2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 eased 0.16% to $57.68 a barrel.
Reporting by Sophie Kiderlin in London. Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Amanda Cooper and Susan Fenton
Source: Reuters