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Despite high economic indicators and forecasts, the euro was unable to consolidate its achievements after the breakthrough on Wednesday. Although the euro did not react to these changes and Mario Draghi's optimistic statements about economic growth due to his fears about low inflation, I think that the euro's fall will be small.
The most important event for the US dollar this week is Friday's report on employment in the non-agricultural sector. It is expected that the number of employed increased by 200 thousand, but the average salary and the unemployment rate should determine how the dollar will react and what are the investors' expectations before the decision of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy.
Investors do not buy the dollar, preferring to wait for the Congress's decisions on tax reform, but the euro does not have new drivers to continue the rally, which increases the risks of consolidating EUR / USD in the range of 1,172-1,202.
The current trend was formed already in July-August, and what we see now is just its extension. Apparently, potentially the oil market is really on the verge of a sell off, the question is only when it happens.
Euro fell after ECB decision. Markets have been confident that monetary policy will remain "adaptive," and there will be no rate hikes in the near future, so the main attention will turn on comment of Draghi.
For the US dollar, this week has not been easy. USD gradually lost its positions relative to all major currencies. Today's data on retail sales and consumer prices is the last chance for a dollar rally this week.