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BoE Policymakers Worry about Shift from Collective Forecast

LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England's shift in communications to focus on multiple scenarios and individual Monetary Policy Committee members' opinions risks ​discouraging them from trying to reach a collective viewpoint, MPC member ‌Megan Greene said.

In April, the BoE suspended publishing a single central forecast for the economy in favour of three separate scenarios and last year began including individual MPC members' ​own explanation of their votes in policy minutes.

The changes were partly ​in response to recommendations from former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.

Greene ⁠said including individual policymakers' views in the minutes of each rate decision ​was good overall but did create new problems.

"There is a risk in our ​shift away from our central forecast and the introduction of individual paragraphs," she said in a written statement to parliament's Treasury Committee to mark the renewal of her position on the ​MPC, published on Wednesday.

"This may reduce the inclination for MPC members to ​discuss things with one another and try to convince one another," she added.

Alan Taylor, another ‌external ⁠member of the MPC, expressed similar concerns on Tuesday.

"The shift towards scenario-heavy communication increases rather than decreases the importance of improving and getting right the central forecast, even if on occasion it is not much talked about, or ​even taken out," ​he said at ⁠a conference hosted by Barclays and the CEPR think tank.

Greene and Taylor are at opposite ends of the MPC ​policy spectrum. Greene was part of the minority who voted ​to ⁠raise rates to 4% at this month's interest rate decision, while Taylor voted to keep rates on hold and said rates might need to be cut if inflation pressures ⁠ease.

Both ​Greene and Taylor have set out different scenarios ​to the three given by the BoE in April which they view as better capturing some ​of the risks facing the economy.

Reporting by David Milliken, editing by Andy Bruce

Source: Reuters


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