Sterling Slips on Signs of Stuttering Economic Momentum

The currency firmed on Friday against the dollar after data showed the United States created far fewer jobs in August than forecast. But subsequent moves have been listless as traders await further cues on the UK economy and the Bank of England’s future policy direction.

IHS Markit’s construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed Britain’s construction industry grew last month at its weakest pace since the lockdown of early 2021, hit by a severe shortage of building supplies.

That comes after Friday PMI data showed growth in the services sector slowed down in August compared with July .

Both surveys add to signs of slowing economic growth, after a strong rebound triggered by the country’s rapid vaccine rollout earlier in the year. They also reveal economic momentum is stuttering under the impact of Brexit, global supply chain issues and COVID isolation rules.

By 0830 GMT, sterling was down 0.13% at $1.38425, off the near one-month high of $1.38905 touched on Friday. Versus the euro, it was flat at 85.68 pence having risen to 85.595 pence on Friday.

“The major gains from the UK economy’s reopening have been realised. Growth is likely to continue to ‘normalise’ through the third quarter, though for the quarter as a whole we still look for GDP growth of 2.7% quarter-on-quarter,” Morgan Stanley analysts told clients.

They predicted data due on Friday would show a 0.6% monthly expansion in July.

However, while the growth recovery might be slowing, Monday’s survey showed input cost inflation was the second-fastest since records began in 1997, with rises in subcontractor rates at a new high.

The Bank of England expects inflation to rise sharply this year and hit a peak of 4%, but it also thinks price growth will cool as problems caused by the reopening of the economy pass.