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EURUSD: euro recovery depends on the kiwi

The EURUSD pair closed lower on Wednesday, March 24, down 0.31% to 1.1812. The pair fell to 1.1812 after the European open and traded in the range of 1.1812-1.1840 right up until the close.

The dollar got a boost as UST yields rebounded from weekly lows as well as concerns about the economic impact of Covid-19 that continues to drag down Europe.

Todays macro agenda (GMT 3)

  • 10:00 Germany: GfK CCI (April)
  • 11:30 Switzerland: SNB interest rate decision
  • 14:00 UK: CBI retail sales (March)
  • 15:30 US: weekly initial jobless claims
  • 15:30 US: GDP (Q4)

EURUSD: euro recovery depends on the kiwi

Current outlook

Most currencies moved into positive territory during Asian trading on Thursday, March 25. The yen has seen the steepest losses. Interestingly, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar are back at the top of the leaderboard. The antipodean currencies are in correction mode following a protracted decline, implying a temporary increase in risk appetite.

The decline stopped at the 112-degree angle. This is a reversal level for the euro. AUD and NZD have entered a correction. There are the prerequisites for an upward correction to 1.1850. However, the fact that the Stochastic Oscillator is sending out sell signals does not look good. Since the time scale points to a bearish trend, sellers can use it to generate sell signals.

If aussie and kiwi move downward, EURUSD will drop below the 1.18 level. Key data points to watch for today include US jobless claims and the GDP report.

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