With no fresh central bank decisions to get excited about this week, focus turns to the overall macro picture and hard economic data releases to influence price action:
Monday, May 15
- EUR: European Commission releases spring economic forecasts; Eurozone March industrial production
- GBP: Bank of England Chief Economist, Huw Pill, speech
- USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
Tuesday, May 16
- AUD: RBA meeting minutes; Australia May consumer confidence
- CNH: China April industrial production, retail sales, unemployment
- EUR: Eurozone 1Q GDP; Germany May ZEW survey expectations
- GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
- USD: US April retail sales, industrial production
- USD: Fed speak – Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
- CAD: Canada April CPI
Wednesday, May 17
- JPY: Japan 1Q GDP
- EUR: Eurozone April CPI (final)
- GBP: Bank of Governor Andrew Bailey speech
Thursday, May 18
- JPY: Japan April external trade
- AUD: Australia April unemployment; May consumer inflation expectations
- USD: US weekly initial jobless claims
- Alibaba, Walmart earnings
Friday, May 19
- NZD: New Zealand April trade balance
- JPY: Japan national CPI
- CAD: Canada March retail sales
- USD: New York Fed President John Williams speech
In the absence of bad news from the US banking sector, market volatility has sunk in the Vix, commonly known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, which is back below its long-term average.
Fears about US interest rate rises have also eased, especially after last week’s latest US inflation data which showed elevated monthly prints, but a softer side to services inflation in the part of the economy which has been running particularly hot.
The above narrative has money markets consolidating bets around three 25 basis-point rate cuts for the rest of this year.
However, the slew of Fed speakers this week could see them push back against this dovish pricing given the job market remains tight and that both core and headline monthly inflation is still strong.
This could give added legs to last week’s dollar rally which is battling with the US fiscal drama and debt ceiling crunch, as well as lingering banking stress and the tightening in lending conditions.
The main datapoint will be April US retail sales which should get a lift from decent auto sales figures.
The weekly jobless claims numbers are also getting some attention as they appear to be moving higher as a lagged response to the surge in job lay-off announcements.
From a technical perspective, the USDInd has clambered back above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is now being relied on for immediate support.
Further USD strength may see this dollar index pushing above its 100-day SMA.
To the downside, a break below its 50-day SMA may next call upon the early-May cycle high at 102.375 as the next critical support level.