Today’s macro agenda (GMT 3)
- 11:00 Germany: Q1 GDP
- 11:00 Eurozone: CPI (April), GDP (Q1), unemployment rate (March)
- 15:30 Canada: GDP (February); US: personal spending and employment cost index (Q1), personal spending and income (March)
- 16:45 US: Chicago PMI; 10: Michigan consumer sentiment (April)
- 20:00 US: Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count
Current outlook
A corrective phase set in for the single currency after topping out at 1.2150. Hourly indicators point to a reversal, so the market now looks balanced and ready for a deviation of 0.4% or 0.62% from 1.2112. The price action is hovering near the balance line (55-day SMA).
Major currencies have been showing mixed performance. Almost all of them are on the rise, except for the euro and the yen. Today’s leader board is topped by the aussie ( 0.37%), which could drive other dollar pairs upward. It was surprising to note that the aussie and the kiwi strengthened against the greenback after weak Chinese macro data came out. These releases exerted a negative impact on oil prices.
China’s April non-manufacturing PMI came in 54.9 beating the median consensus of 51.8, but down from 56.3 in the previous month. The manufacturing PMI fell to 51.1 vs. 55.9 expected and 51.9 in March.
Ahead the weekend, the price action will be driven once again by UST yields, as well as Q1 GDP out of Germany and the Eurozone. If investors are impressed by these readings, we expect to see the euro strengthen to 1.2160. Conversely, if the GDP releases let down investors due to lockdowns, the odds are high that the price action will sink to the 1.2094 trendline (4 and 5).
Bottom line: EURUSD pair is currently in a corrective phase ahead of European data points. How the week ends will depend on Q1 GDP reports from Germany and the Eurozone. If these indices encourage investors, we could see euro firming to 1.2160. But it they come as a disappointment due to lockdowns, the price action likely pull back to the 1.2094 trendline. Notably, the key pair’s performance will be impacted by UST 10-year yields.