Trading in the euro finished slightly lower on Monday, July 5. The EURUSD pair fell 0.04% to 1.1859 and hovered in a range between 1.1850 and 1.1880. The market saw low-key activity due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States.
Today’s macro agenda (GMT 3)
- 11:30 UK: construction sector PMI (June)
- 12:00 Germany and Eurozone: ZEW economic sentiment index (July); Eurozone: retail sales (May), European Commission economic forecast
- 16:45 UK: Markit services PMI (June), 17:00: ISM service PMI (June)
Current outlook
In Asian trading, major currencies are flashing green on the screen. Topping the leaderboard are the kiwi dollar ( 1.09%) and the aussie dollar ( 0.85%). Antipodean currencies rose sharply after the RBA meeting. The New Zealand dollar is outperforming its Australian counterpart as market expectations for a RBNZ rate hike are on the rise, whereas the RBA is not expected to act until November 2023.
On Wednesday, the Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting. After a mixed US jobs report, the minutes are a key event for the FX market this week.
The DXY dollar index fell to 91.99, with the road to 91.81 now open. Since the dollar index accounts for 56.7% of the EURUSD pair, it can be assumed that the euro will climb to 1.1943 (112-degree angle) by Thursday.
The EURUSD price action rose to 1.1895. The resistance level is currently at 1.1905. With the support of the cross, you can move the resistance by 1.1915/20 (90-degree angle). Today’s highlights include the EU PMI indices and the ISM service PMI stateside.