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Greenback shrugs off US macro

The EURUSD paid rose 0.12% to 1.1817 on Wednesday, September 15. Price action climbed to 1.1832 and dropped to 1.1804 during the North American trading session. The DXY shrugged off a stronger than expected NY Fed manufacturing data.

Manufacturing activity increased by 0.4% MoM, compared to the median consensus that called for 0.5% and the previous reading of 0.8% (revised from 0.9%).

The DXY has shown mixed performance over the past three days as market participants continue to digest the August US inflation and manufacturing data, which dampened near-term expectations of Fed tapering.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT 3)

  • 12:00 Eurozone: trade balance (July)
  • 15:00 ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • 15:15 Canada: housing starts (August); 15:30 foreign securities purchases and wholesale sales (July)
  • 15:30 US: initial weekly jobless claims, retail sales (August)
  • 17:00 US: business inventories (July)
  • 23:00 US: foreign bond investment (July)

Current outlook

By the time of writing, major currencies were showing multidirectional dynamics, with most currencies trading in the red. Market participants cannot decide which assets to hold ahead of the FOMC meeting due to recent macro data and ongoing uncertainty over the Fed's QE program,. Today traders will focus on US retail sales.

Technical analysis

North American macro data has recently come out worse than expected, and price action remains below 1.1850. Meanwhile, euro crosses look ambiguous. Buyers failed to hold the 1.1800 level as the key pair dropped to 1.1790 in Asian trading. Support is located at 1.1790 (45-degree angle of the Gann fan).

Notably, the Stochastic Oscillator has slipped into the oversold zone. Sentiment could change when the UK session opens. There are currently two resistance levels: 1.1815 and then 1.1820.

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