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Euro attempts to bounce off 1.1225

Trading in the EURUSD pair ended in decline on Monday, November 22. The euro fell 0.39% to $1.1237. Prices tumbled sharply during the North American session. The DXY index locked in gains on news that US President Joe Biden nominated the current head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell for a second four-year term. The other leading candidate, Leil Brainard, was nominated as Vice Chair. Biden believes Powell and Brainard will provide strong leadership.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT 3)  

  • 11:15 France: manufacturing and services PMI (November)
  • 11:30 Germany: manufacturing and services PMI (November)
  • 12:00 Eurozone: manufacturing and services PMI (November)
  • 12:30 UK: manufacturing and services PMI (November)
  • 14:00 UK: BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskell speech
  • 17:45 US: manufacturing and services PMI (November)
  • 18:00 US: Richmond Fed manufacturing index (November); BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
  • 18:30 Australia CB leading economic index (September)
  • 21:00 Canada: BoC Deputy Governor Paul Baudry

Current outlook

By the time of writing, major currencies were showing mixed performance. Over the last hour, the euro and the Swiss franc have notched up gains. The kiwi dollar is showing the steepest losses against the US dollar. The NZ dollar currency is predictably being sold off ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting.

This will be a holiday-shortened trading week, with US exchanges closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Today market participants will focus on manufacturing and service sector PMIs released in a number of EU countries. BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to deliver a speech during the North American session.

Technical analysis

On Tuesday morning, sellers pushed the price action down to 1.1226. Several lower lows have been seen on the hourly TF. There was no aggressive selling of the euro during APAC trading. The EURGBP cross held above 0.8380. Technical signals suggest an upward correction to 1.1278 (45-degree angle of the Gann fan). The price action pattern on the hourly TF also implies readiness for a pullback. If the PMI prints do not upset investors, the dollar and the euro will likely revert to a correction by the end of the week.

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